Hopefully Not Too Much More on the War
Jason Kuznicki on Dec 16th 2005
Just skip it if you’re tired of this stuff.
Sandefur writes,
My thesis is that when a dictator is brutalizing his own people and violating their rights, then a free nation has the right to depose that regime; further, that when such a dictator is a threat to us, we are in the right to depose him if we choose.
Agreed entirely. But by what criteria do we choose when to exercise the right? I submit that we should exercise this right only when we are already compelled to go to war with the dictator — and no earlier. (In theory, we may also be compelled to go to war against a regime that does not brutalize its own people; in these vanishingly rare cases, I think we would lack the right to depose the regime. This, though, is a side issue to both of us.)
At least in classical just war theory, a freely chosen war is never a just war. I hope I do not seem dogmatic about the point, but when we are to risk American lives, we seem to owe the soldiers more than “Well, we could have chosen either Iraq, or North Korea, or Iran, or…” We did give them more, but simply I do not think it was enough. Sandefur and I have discussed this issue in the past, and I doubt we will come to any agreement on it now, so for my part, at least, I am content to let it drop.
On tactics and their risks, Sandefur makes excellent points, all of them. I admit that perhaps if we had used different tactics, my judgment might now seem far more timid or even foolish in hindsight — and the hawks’ opinions might likewise seem far more reasonable. In that other world I might have been converted, and I might now be talking about invading Iran next. But these are some pretty big counterfactuals, and I am not terribly interested in opining about them.
Flypaper again. Sandefur further writes,
The “keeping the war in Iraq” theory is wrong because “Britain and Spain invaded Iraq, yet
this did nothing to stop the bombings in London or Madrid.” That’s a good point. Of course,
this issue is like the tiger-deterring rock in the Simpsons episode.
Well, yes. It is the nature of empirical results that one is never quite certain of the general principles that one infers from them. Short of an actual attack on U.S. soil, however, I think the evidence suggesting failure is fairly strong.
If two of my neighbors (call them Britain and Spain) had just bought tiger-deterring rocks, and if they both had been attacked by tigers, then I would certainly doubt the rock’s efficacy. Further, we must add numerous subsequent foiled al Qaeda plots against the United States to the data suggesting (but admittedly not fully proving) that the flypaper strategy has been a failure. Sources differ about just how many and how serious each of these plots were, but in any case al Qaeda clearly has tried, and our police and intelligence — not the war — have stopped them.
And now, for probably the touchiest point…
Kuznicki also contends that [the flypaper] theory is “inconsistent with our other stated goals
for the war” because it would mean that “we expect and even hope for increased violence
there.” This is a non sequitur. We might expect it, but certainly the theory does not require us to “hope for” it. The suggestion that anyone “hopes for” violence to continue would seem to be the sort of ad hominem that we ought to avoid.
I did not mean to make an ad hominem attack. I hoped merely to expose what I think is one of the unexamined implications of the strategy. It runs like this:
1. We hope that there is no terrorism in Iraq, the United States, or anywhere else in the world.
2. Given that terrorism will happen somewhere, let us go to war in Iraq so that terrorists from elsewhere in the world will be drawn into that country and not attack the United States.
Let’s make no mistake about it, while the U.S. government is tasked above all with protecting U.S. citizens, the flypaper strategy as articulated so far aims at attracting terrorists from all parts of the globe — and bringing them to Iraq. As David Warren, an early supporter of the strategy, has put it,
President Bush has also, quite consciously to my information, created a new playground for the enemy, away from Israel, and even farther away from the United States itself. By the very act of proving this lower ground, he drains terrorist resources from other swamps.
We invite foreign terrorists to a “playground” in Iraq — a chillingly sanitized way to describe the slaughter of civilians who are purportedly our friends.
For this same reason, Sandefur’s likening of the occupation to the Reconstruction era fails. It is not merely a matter of dealing with homegrown terrorists on their own turf — which by itself would be a bold, decisive, and thoroughly proper move. No, a better analogy for the flypaper strategy would be if Canada invented a mind-control ray — and used it to implant in all of its criminals the suggestion that they migrate southward.
“But wait,” say the Canadian officials when we complain. “We are only looking after the interests of Canadian citizens. They are our first priority! Besides, we certainly aren’t responsible for the actions of criminals.”
Even if Canada’s mind-control ray decreased crime in Canada, would it still be right? I would say no. For the very same reason, it is wrong of us to hope that terrorists will go to Iraq for any reason at all. I would barely even wish terrorists on each other. (I would, but only barely.)
For more on the flypaper strategy, also see Greg Djerejian of Belgravia Dispatch, a supporter of the war who nonetheless finds this argument deeply troubling. He said it better, and with more credibility, than I could.
A likely result of the flypaper strategy and of certain other insensitivities — and I suspect we are already seeing it in this week’s elections — is that many Iraqis are entering the democratic process precisely because they hope that in so doing, they will eject the Americans. This contradiction is nothing like what any of the hawks expected at the outset — yet it is certainly understandable from a nation that we have just used as flypaper. This anti-Americanism only increases the chance that the democratic process in Iraq will eventually yield to a dictator, as even the best-designed democracies sometimes can do.
Our cavalier attitude toward Iraqi lives has only bought us hostility in return, and it would have been far better (at least for decency’s sake), had the administration never made this argument. We should be apologizing to Iraqi citizens for the horrors of war — not exulting that perhaps, thanks to their sacrifice, we suffer very little at home.
Lastly, as to whether I will be overly timid in the next crisis: Let’s just say that if we had certain
knowledge of the locations where Iran was making nuclear weapons, I would cheer on the day that we bombed these sites. If Israel did it, I would cheer for them, and I would strongly support any American defense that Israel might require. Of course, the possible results could get very messy indeed, but these would be nothing compared to a nuclear warhead aimed at Tel Aviv — or smuggled into New York. No one regrets much the actions that Reagan took against rogue states, do they? It’s from this perspective, I think, that we should measure our responses. I know that this may sound provocative, but consider how much easier we would sleep now if we could have done the same to North Korea.
Filed in The Barracks
I’m in agreement with Jason here, especially about flypaper. Two other little problems with using Iraq as flypaper (which I wrote about here):
1. Flypaper is supposed to be sticky. But terrorists can just leave Iraq and bring terror elsewhere (to whatever targets we’re diverting them from). This war is sticker for us than it is for them (which is why we have to stay the course…stay the course…stay the course). If our large, traditional army disengages from this conflict any time soon then there’s a good chance that they’ll leave chaos behind, so we’re stuck. If the foreign terrorists disengage from this conflict any time soon then there’s a good chance that they’ll still leave chaos behind them, so if the fight in Iraq doesn’t remain an attractive target for them then they can go. Yes, some of them are dying, but not nearly enough to be a big disruption to their operations.
2. Flies are just supposed to sit there on the paper. They shouldn’t be doing stuff. They shouldn’t be multiplying, training, and learning strategy. But that’s what the terrorists are doing. They’re getting recruits and practice. However many we’ve killed or captured, it seems like there are more than before, and that they’re better at what they do.
[Content deleted. While it happened to be on "my" side of the issue, it was also exactly the sort of abuse that this site will neither endorse nor publish. -- JTK]
The last leaf of the majestic great white elm descends slowly to the forest floor, winter winds preserving the essence of its structure, but none of its life. Its lone horror is in discovering that Spring rain will eventually invite the savages to partake of its body and obliterate the one Truth it had always held dear.
If I had been in the right state of Mind last night, I would have censured myself. I can only offer my sincerest apologies to all and the pathetic excuse that a case of the Lion of Asia combined with the prison of Winter rain to delude me into thinking I should have ever clicked on that pesky Submit button.
Your only mistake, dear Dr. Kuznicki, was in believing that I had actually chosen your side; my admittedly abusive (and stupid) remarks were only intended as a school-yard-taunting rebuke of your original position in this discussion.
For that I am truly sorry.
Travel towards the Thaw in Peace, gentle stranger.
Um…
I’ve been saying quite consistently that the flypaper strategy was both wrongheaded and cruel. I don’t believe that I have ever changed my mind on this. If you can point out which post of mine suggested as much, I would like to see it.
Thalidomide Glow Says:
December 18th, 2005 at 5:09 am
[Content deleted. While it happened to be on “my” side of the issue, it was also exactly the sort of abuse that this site will neither endorse nor publish. — JTK]
Dr. Kuznicki,
I would, too. Unfortunately, like all humans, my intelligence and my attention-span have limited my ability to understand. I freely admit that I did not read any of the previous posts debating the Flies and the Sticky Paper (I apologize for not carefully studying the allegory you disagreed with); I got too bored. I assume (please correct me if I am wrong) that you would find equal drudgery in examining the quotidian minutiae of my own experiences.
You were talking about War.
You imagined that somehow Consistency would solve the whole problem.
We find ourselves, to my greatest regret, at cross purposes (luckily it was you, the rest of the blokes at your site are…)
“No one regrets much the actions that Reagan took against rogue states, do they?”
I regret everything Reagan failed to do with regards to Iran.
For nearly 26 years we failed to do anything about Iran other than arm Saddam against him, and we know how much a failure that was.
I think my greatest disgust with the war in Iraq is that while we could have done anything to end terrorist supporting states, none of it could have been as effective as invading Iran first
Jason,
I was born on July 8th in Rock Springs, Wyoming, in the year 1973.
Wyoming is one of only two states in the Union whose borders are defined by straight lines. Though neither state is geographically in the center of the Nation (Thanks a Bunch, Colorado), in my lifetime Wyoming became the state that was least populated by humans (Take That, Alaska!). I spent the first eighteen years of my existence in Wyoming but then decided I had to flee. The remaining 14 have been consumed in finding the right sequence of words and the right tone of voice to pass along the following two secret password questions for reentry:
1 - District of Columbia, I understand that Government, to be Moral, must abstain from voting, but exactly how many more Citizens do you plan on cramming into yourself without giving them a voice in the Senate?
Current score:
Wyoming: 506,529 mostly-white people get 2 votes
D.C.: 553,523 mostly-black people get 0
2 - Texas, I understand that you are miffed at not being the Biggest state in the Union (in geographical area, population, or size of economy…), but do you really think it is necessary to ritualistically kill your Citizens to get my attention?
(Yo, D.C., are you paying attention?)
[...] I won’t push my luck much further on the war subject, but I do have some quick thoughts on Kuznicki’s comments. [...]
We fly across the hyperborean wasteland, in tandem, with brittle hope that supersonic speed has hidden our progress from silently lurking, enemy encampments. Unfamiliar mistral caresses have frozen our eyes into a perpetual state of unblinking. Though excruciatingly dry and painful, this has mercifully left me to focus solely on steadying my Telescope to view the one Star showing the path we must follow.
My inexpert skill in the saddle forces me to continually fall further behind you. Trapped in a humiliating, uneven pace, I curse my inadequate preparation for the expedition you had always warned I would have to join. I had lost myself in the beauty of summer; forgive me, Fair Brother, for my constant jeers at your grim resolve in not participating in my silly games.
Fear suddenly grips my heart as my Body shifts in an unanticipated direction. The clammy claws of indecision slow my mind towards the snare into which my own weak hands had betrayed me, one clenched frantically to the Mount, the other losing grip on the Shield our dear Father offered for protection as we entered this field of Battle. As the frigid steppe air accepts my plummeting body, I choke back into silence my startled cry “Polaris!”
I will not allow my Heart to fail you in the same way my unruly flesh has.
I find my crumple in the dust and in the sage, its fragrant scent forever hidden in the hostile country it has chosen to rest. My arms are crushed in the momentum of my fall, my precious Instrument useless in shielding my gaze from the riotous starway, as the warm lights that once shielded us both in the arms of our home city have faded deep into the recesses of my subconscious. I find comfort only in my Faith that you had been studying My gifts far more diligently than I had been studying yours.
As you travel northward, towards the even more desolate Kingdom of Nuclear Winter, find your own comfort in Knowing that you could never mistake the echoed cry of the Coyote as your own Brother’s pathetic screams for mercy. Do not turn back. You must continue, eyes forward-focused on the gentle Bright one leading you ever onward towards the Righteous. Only one nation has ever had had the audacity to use the awesome power hidden there; to be distracted by the glimmering spirits all around is to lose sight of the path you must follow to stave more beasts from opening that putrid portal once again. You cannot Save me now; your path is not my redemption.
As I eventually find frustration in the futility of telepathically projecting these calming thoughts into your Mind as it disappears into the horizon. I still my labored breath as best I can, hoping to keep the predators from discovering my location for as long as humanly possible. This is, after all, their country, and I can no longer be freed from this Prison by commanding my arms to pick me up and transport me to a safer location. Double your speed, if you can, for their snouts have the power to sense your direction simply by considering the scent of my carcass as their unholy feast has met pause.
For the moment, I find peace in the mysterious puzzle of the Ancients, constant celestial motions interrupted by the disobedient slice of Planets.
As I wait for my vision to dim, deserts sucking my warmth to sustain themselves into the night, I first consider the strange motions of Persia, or Iran, or whatever that frightening cluster of humans has decided to call itself in these times of War. Should I find pity for the Powerful Shah, as he and his sad People were cast out of their rich homeland for the mere crime of failing to convince their backwards, stupid populations to properly present themselves in greeting the rich Westerners?
Hmm…
Or should I side with his pitiful, lost wanderers, who committed offense only in their inability to continually swallow his bitter solution of natural ex/re/suppression, his response to the Colonial Experimenters?
No.
Their delight in casting off the Oppressor simply blinded them to the other dreadful beast stalking so close behind. He gently scooped them into his maw, calmly grinding flesh between teeth, his nourishment founded in the thrill of twisted skin and broken bone. Though they desperately clutched at our own Citizens as they were consumed by the thing they had insisted would bring salvation, I am not compelled to offer those alien creatures either pity or condemnation.
Likewise, in encountering the flickering, yet strangely crystalline specter of Reagan, I discover neither joy nor horror in agreeing he tasted sweet Victory in raising his Mighty Fist of Freedom to liberate unfortunate hostages from the chains of evil nations. I face only sorrow, as he has convinced a generation of Americans that, by casting our own restless Poor into the sewers to float in the residue of our useless, broken, and polluted purchases, we have been following an ultimately less dangerous path through this dense and terrifying forest.
As we part company, I pray you will always find fresh, clean water in sustaining your fragile Space capsule through the long and exhausting journey you have chosen to undertake, steadfast and brave Time Traveler Sandefur.
[...] Kuznicki, in an earlier post, answered this question in a way by saying “if we had certain knowledge of the locations where Iran was making nuclear weapons, I would cheer on the day that we bombed these sites.” That is to say, preemptive war is justified when the other side commits acts which are tantamount to a first strike, and that includes arming themselves with unusually dangerous weapons, and demonstrating and declaring their will to use them against us or our allies. Of course, as I’ve contended before, absolute “certain[ty]” should not be required, but very confident reasonable belief should be enough: and of course, that existed in the case of Iraq. [...]
===Eve Is Not A Criminal
There were two Brothers, Cain and Abel. One lived by plowing the Earth, the other by leading stupid Animals away from the terror of the Wilderness. They each offered up a Sacrifice. God was displeased in distilling Cain’s. Why? Not because Vegetarians are delusional, or because Abel (being the Second Son) so readily offered up the First Born of his flock simply because God commanded it. No. She could see through their ritual offerings into her Son’s future actions.
In facing her displeasure, Cain made a choice. A terrible one (and She knew he would do it). He was punished for it, but he did not Die. (or is that indeed the dreaded Curse?) I do not know. I am not God. I am not a Woman.
Confusion sets in.
Afterwards, all I know is that Cain used his Tool, which had always borne an indescribable Bounty, even if no one would ever acknowledge it, against his Younger Brother in anger, jealous of all the Glory he never received. He was forever Marked by it.
Am I?
Are you?
In which direction is your Liahona pointing?
Are we just arguing about how Children should be properly educated so that they can find their Own glory in this mortality?
We all decide which commandment from Moses’ Burning Bush is the Most Important One as we rationalize our lives, don’t we? Plead the Fifth? The Sixth? The Seventh to the Tenth, All Inclusive?
Please.
Force me to believe in the First Commandment. The Second. The Third. The Fourth. I defy you to find God’s Glory in that.
Am I eliminated from the spiriturational discourse because I am more interested in the Commandments that had to be destroyed, as all of the naughty children were distracted by the Idols they insisted on worshiping?
If I am, so be it. Throw me into the Trash. I deserve it, but I do offer you a prayer while I rest on that Heap.
The first Sin I discover in my Bible is not the crime of an Unknowable God, who created our Universe with both Perfection and Disarray, or that of Eve, who “tricked” Adam into believing he actually wanted to Work to support a Baby of their own.
No.
It is Cain, staring at a bloody farming implement and then at his own hand, and then deciding (because he could not conceive of any logical or rational reason to believe anyone could witness him committing a crime while killing his Brother) that he was looking at the hand of God.
Science is a tool. It has been used to give us a great Bounty. It has also been used to spread great Horror in our World. As you wave your scripture to and fro to lead children away from the damnation of an Evil Theory, do you also forbid them from partaking of the Fruit It has borne, the understanding of many complex biological processes that have lead to lifesaving medical treatments of previously untreatable diseases?
Are you Correct or Foolish in announcing so blaringly that you know what God knows about Creation? That you know what God knows about Time?
Who is worshipping an Idol?
[...] But.. no, I’m solidly against Bush’s foreign policy, an opposition balanced only by my opposition to his domestic policy. Why else would I write this and this and this and this and this and this? I have consistently thought it was a bad idea for us to invade Iraq, both on prudential grounds and on moral ones, and that it would be an even worse idea to invade Iran, as some neoconservatives are now suggesting we do. [...]